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Are Republicans losing their grip on Florida?
One new poll shows single digit leads for Republicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody in the governor and senate races respectively for the upcoming midterm elections. The data is quite a departure from DeSantis and Rubio blowouts in 2022.
Currently, matchups for governor and the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections find Republicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody holding single digit leads in their races respectively. This according to a new poll from the University of North Florida.
According to the poll, leading Democratic candidates for governor, David Jolly and Jerry Demings are within striking distance of Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds. The data shows that the Trump-endorsed current Congressman, Donalds, is just 6 points ahead of Jolly and 7 points ahead of Demings.
"Donalds holds a 42% to 36% lead over Democrat David Jolly, with 17% of voters undecided. When matched against Democrat Jerry Demings, Donalds leads 43% to 36%, with 16% unsure of their choice," according to the UNF poll.
"When asked who they would vote for if the 2026 Republican primary election for governor were held today, 28% indicated a vote for Byron Donalds, followed by 24% for Casey DeSantis. In a distant third place comes James Fishback with 4%, followed by 3% for Jay Collins, less than 1% for Paul Renner, and 36% said they do not know who they’ll vote for."
The director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab and political science professor, Sean Freeder, conducted a poll of about 800 likely Florida voters from Feb 21st to March 2nd.
Freeder says the poll found voter decisions at this moment, are more about partisanship than candidate identity. In fact, voters say they do not know some of the candidates for top statewide office.
In a Moody-Vindman Senate contest, 45% said they would vote for her and 38% for Vindman. Another 15% said they didn’t know who they’d vote for.
Florida hasn’t elected a Democrat for governor in three decades, and Florida has 1.5 million more active registered Republican voters than Democrats.
While Republicans still hold a distinct advantage with Florida voters, they are aware of the potential threat from Democratic candidates to fire up their voters and donors.
The same poll also found the initiative to eliminate property taxes failing at ballot box, falling short of 60% threshold.