MIAMI-- Hurricane Milton is once again a Category 5, and warnings and watches have been extended down the east coast. But the west coast remains ground zero for landfall.

Forecasters say it's time to be ready to evacuate if told to do so.

The 5 pm advisory shows Milton with top winds 165 mph, located 480 miles SW of Tampa, moving ENE at 9.

Time is running out to prepare for or run from Milton. Forecasters say much of the state will feel tropical storm force winds by midday Wednesday. Cities and counties have also been racing the clock to clean up debris. Both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties have opened additional shelters because of increased demand.

BULLETIN

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND

EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W

ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS

ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended

southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha

Sound, Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been

extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been

extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from

the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County

Line.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning

for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,

the Abacos, and Bimini.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from

Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from

Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has

discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,

including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the

St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,

including Tampa Bay

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward

to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the

St. Marys River

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the

Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dzilam to Cancun Mexico

* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to

Flamingo

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the

Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located

near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Milton wobbled

earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the

east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast

with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and

continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast

and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast

track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of

Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central

coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of

Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have

increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a

category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous

major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida

Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2

to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the

Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft

Tampa Bay...10-15 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft

Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft

Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm

Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals

up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of

the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the

risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,

along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals

around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the

Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas

in Mexico this evening.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area

across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area

on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading

across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area

on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern

Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern

Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday

morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to

affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$

Bob Alexander