Hurricane Ian continues to intensify with the maximum sustained winds now up to 85 miles per hour. Conditions in Western Cuba are expected to deteriorate this evening with significant wind and s torm surge expected.

The latest information:

LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN

ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

The government of the Cayman Islands has changed the Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman to a Tropical Storm Warning. There is a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Grand Cayman, Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, and the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge, Florida Bay, and Tampa Bay, Dry Tortugas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge, Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, Englewood southward to Flamingo, and Lake Okeechobee.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

STORM SURGE

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa

Bay...5-10 ft

*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft

*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...

4-7 ft

*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft

*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida

Bay...2-4 ft

*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

WIND

Tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand Cayman during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac during the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening.

RAIN

Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday:

• Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5 inches, especially along the south coastal region.
• Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
• Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
• Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

• Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15 inches.

• Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday.

Bob Alexander